Graded Novice Chases Pre-Cheltenham - PLOG (Punter's Blog) from Roy Waterhouse Steeplechasing

LAST time I did a PLOG, I was hopeful that I'd be able to publish more results of the research I've been doing before I resume betting activities in the 2008-09 season. Having completed a study of Listed, Grade 1 and Grade 2 novice chases in Britain, here I do just that.

One of my favourite bets is a chasing debutant. In the last season Tramantano, Beat The Boys, Captain Marlon and Back On Line landed me wagers when they were having their first runs over fences. Captain Marlon was particularly noteworthy, because he was running in a non-novice, 0-115 handicap chase and with the novice chase programme such as it is, more horses are going to start their chasing careers in ordinary non-novice handicaps - one or two of them will win.

I noticed, however, that my success with horses on their chasing debuts became non-existent when I backed such animals jumping fences in public for the first time in a Graded race. There were three such on my record - Lead On, beaten behind Hobbs Hill in a Grade 2 at Newbury's Hennessy meeting; Pancake, third in the Henry VIII Novices' Chase; and Ring The Boss, who ran Kruguyrova close in the Kingmaker at Warwick.

No brownie points if you spotted that they're all trained by Philip Hobbs, as that's merely a coincidence. The fact is that they were highly tried on their chasing debuts and lost - as did the majority of such horses.

I concentrated my studies on Listed and Graded novice chases run in Britain before the Cheltenham Festival over the last three seasons. There were 49 such races, and only six were won by a chasing debutant:
- Baby Run, Molyneux Novices' Chase (Listed), Aintree, Oct 2005;
- Celtic Son, Rising Stars Novices' Chase (Grade 2), Wincanton, Nov 2005;
- Lennon, Molyneux Novices' Chase (Listed), Aintree, Oct 2006;
- Fair Along, November Novices' Chase (Grade 2), Cheltenham, Nov 2006;
- Leslingtaylor, Molyneux Novices' Chase (Listed), Aintree, Oct 2007;
- Ornais, Rising Stars Novices' Chase (Grade 2), Wincanton, Nov 2007

All of them occurred in early-season races, and no chasing debutant has been successful when running over fences for the first time in a Pattern race after the Sunday of Cheltenham's Open meeting for the last three seasons. The common denominators are easy to spot - food for thought there when we look at the 2008 renewal of the Molyneux.

It's also no surprise to see two runnings of the Rising Stars at Wincanton figure prominently above. When that race was run at Chepstow, it was often first-chase runners who dominated, three that spring to mind being Hill Of Tullow in 1996 (beating another fencing debutant, Berude Not To), See More Business in 1997 (all three runners in the race that year were running for the first time over fences), and a Hobbs-trained horse, One Knight, in 2002. See, Philip Hobbs can get one to win a Grade 2 first time over fences - also did you notice Fair Along's name above?

The general rule of thumb with a novice chaser - start small and work up - isn't as rigidly stuck to as it used to be, thanks to the restructuring of novice chases (beginners' events, for horses who haven't won a chase at all, tend to be strong heats from October to early-December). However, horses who won first time out over fences on their way to better things have been influential over the last three seasons.

Of the 49 pre-Cheltenham Pattern novice chases, 32 were won by a horse who'd earlier been successful on its chasing debut (65% of all such races).

The message is this: if it won on its chasing debut on its way to contesting a Graded or Listed novice chase, it could be a contender; if it's a horse's first start over fences and it's mid-November, it's unlikely to be winning a Pattern race; but if it's a chasing debutant in the Molyneux at Aintree or the Rising Stars at Wincanton, it's the probable winner.

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