Ten
Horses to Follow
for the
2009/10
NH Season
Alvarado
(IRE)
4 ch g Goldmark (USA) - Mrs Jones (IRE) (Roselier (FR))
Trainer Howard Johnson
Alvarado could go down any of three career paths;
racehorse, dressage horse or rodeo act, but is selected
for the Ten To Follow in the hope that he chooses
the first of those. All
three were in evidence prior to his win at Musselburgh
on March
1st. After unseating Denis O'Regan at the paddock exit
- I don't think O'Regan does rodeo - Alvarado continued
to buck and kick all the way to the start once the pair
were
reunited.
Once racing, it was as though nothing had happened in the
preliminaries. Travelling sweetly, he just had to be nudged
out to beat Hillview Boy by four and a half lengths. That
was his second start - he'd finished second to Hunters
Belt, also at Musselburgh, on January 21st first up. For
his third and final run last term he was sent to
Punchestown for the
valuable Goffs Land Rover Bumper, but unfortunately he
did more rodeo than at Musselburgh and, allowed to take
part, finished 17th to Imperial Cascade. A medium-height,
leggy gelding who impressed with his wellbeing at Musselburgh,
Alvarado is a half-brother to Character Building and, in
the hope
that
he'll
be more
tractable
with a season's racing behind him, should win a couple
of novice hurdles at around 2m4f and, in the fullness of
time, will get 3m.
Bally
Sands (IRE)
5 b g Luso - Sandwell Old Rose (IRE) (Roselier (FR))
Trainer Robin Mathew
12,000 guineas is not a lot for a jumps racehorse these days - even
during the credit crunch - but Robin Mathew, whose best horse to date was
probably Nashville Star, who won a juvenile handicap hurdle at Newbury
in March
1995, looks to have picked up a bargain in Bally Sands, who cost that amount
at the Cheltenham Sales last Autumn. Although he didn't win any of his
four starts in novice hurdles, Bally Sands showed above-average form to
be placed and a maiden at least should have his name on it in 2009/10.
After showing nothing in a Fontwell novice in December, he started at 100/1
for a similar contest at Folkestone on January 2nd. He proved a revelation,
racing in touch and leading from three out to the next where Aux Le Bahnn
took it up, but keeping on to go down by just less than three lengths.
Bally Sands confirmed that the Folkestone effort wasn't a fluke at Chepstow
next time, going off a 20/1 shot this time and five lengths-second to Jaunty
Journey, subsequently Grade 2-placed. A tilt at the Albert Bartlett at
the Cheltenham Festival proved too much for him and he was tailed off behind
Weapon's Amnesty. The tallish, leggy Bally Sands, only a five-year-old,
could well be a stronger horse when we see him next and that could lead
to an improvement in his form. His Chepstow run suggests that heavy ground
isn't a problem to him, he stays 3m already and has the size to jump fences.
Barker
(IRE)
8 gr g Mister Mat (FR) - Drumrawn Lass (IRE) (King's Ride)
Trainer Willie Mullins
The Pierse Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown in January, formerly
The Ladbroke, is often won by a one-day-in-the-sun horse, but in 2008 it
wasn't.
That
year's Pierse victor was Barker, who went on to be one of the top two-mile
novice chasers in 2008/09. That didn't look likely judged on
his first four starts over fences, but after he was switched to the Willie
Mullins stable, Barker really took off. He won three of his last four starts,
starting with ordinary novice events at Down Royal and Navan in February/March.
A step up in trip and class followed in the Grade 1 Powers Gold Cup at
Fairyhouse over Easter and he found only the resurgent Aran Concerto too
good, that by only a short-head. Barker well and truly rose to the occasion
in the Grade 1 Swordlestown Cup at the Punchestown Festival. He put in
an impressive round of jumping and travelled strongly, and already had
Forpadydeplasterer's measure when the Arkle winner made a bad mistake two
out. Master Minded's fortunate win in the Kerrygold Champion Chase a couple
of days before Barker's race shows that there is hope for trainers of other
good two-mile chasers in 2009/10 and, if that one is to fail in his bid
for a third Queen Mother Champion Chase, Barker could be the one to beat
him. Barker just about stays 2m4f, but is much better at the minimum trip.
Copper
Bleu (IRE)
7 b g Pistolet Bleu (IRE) - Copper Supreme (IRE)
(Supreme Leader)
Trainer Philip Hobbs
"...challenged going best home turn,
led two and a half furlongs out, carried head high and hung left under
pressure, faded... I’d rather
watch after that finishing effort at Aintree." My initial opinion of Copper
Bleu prior to his intended outing at Exeter on October 8th (withdrawn because
of the ground), judged on his debut for the Hobbs yard in the Grade
2 Bumper on National day 2008, was one I was forced to revise
after some
excellent
performances in his novice hurdle season. When he did
eventually reappear, in a 2m4f novice hurdle - also at Aintree - later
that month, it looked as though earlier impressions were confirmed when
he was
beaten
31 lengths
into third
behind Massasoit, but the ground had become desperate after heavy rain,
and from his next start onwards Copper Bleu was a different animal. A defeat
of Riverside Theatre over 2m110y at Newbury and a good second to Master
Of Arts over the same trip at Doncaster - sticking on well under pressure
this time - in November/January preceded two terrific efforts in top novice
hurdle
company.
He was fourth
to Go Native in the Supreme Novices' at the Cheltenham Festival, leading
briefly before two out but beaten two and three quarter lengths, and ran
Bouggler to a head in the Mersey Novices' Hurdle at Aintree, this time
proving his stamina over 2m4f. For his final start he won a novice hurdle
at the Punchestown Festival, beating Otay Kawn by eight lengths. His half-sister
Presenting Copper has already won over fences and Copper Bleu is sure to
be taking the novice chase route in 2009/10.
Luna
Landing
6 ch g Allied Forces (USA) - Macca Luna (IRE) (Kahyasi)
Trainer Jedd O'Keeffe
Second season novice hurdler Luna Landing had been running
like a stayer over 2m, got his first win over timber when going
up to 2m4f and has since made up into a modest stayer on the Flat,
suggesting that a further step up in distance should see him win
a handicap hurdle or two this season. In the 2008/09 jumps campaign
Luna Landing only had the two starts. The first was a reasonable
effort in a handicap hurdle at Wetherby on October 31st won by
First Point, but his lack of pace was exposed when he struggled
to keep up on the home turn before passing a couple late in the
day. Luna Landing was stepped up in trip for a novices' hurdle
at Musselburgh on December 8th and it worked a treat. Despite racing
lazily on the final circuit, he responded well to pressure and
readily came clear from the home turn, beating Night Force by 12
lengths. He wasn't seen again over hurdles, but has raced on the
Flat over the Summer and posted his best effort when finishing
third over Pontefract's testing 2m2f in June. Although Luna Landing
isn't really bred for stamina, he very much runs like a stayer
and is one to look out for in 3m handicap hurdles.
McMurrough
(IRE)
5 b h Spectrum (IRE) - Sensitive (IRE) (Posen (USA))
Trainer Malcolm Jefferson
Dual NH Flat winner McMurrough must be a well-regarded animal. After
his victories at Market Rasen in May and Kelso in October, he had an awful
lot asked of him in one more bumper and three novice hurdles. He wasn't
suited by a steadily-run race in the Open Bumper at Cheltenham in November,
and was outpaced when the winner Shinrock Paddy went for home, but kept
on in the straight for fourth. McMurrough's first run over jumps came in
a Grade 2 at Haydock in January and, going off at 25/1, acquitted himself
well, beaten only four and a half lengths into third behind Alfie Flits.
The 2m4f110y of the Sidney Banks at Huntingdon in February seemed sure
to suit him better, but he didn't travel that well and was beaten by the
turn, McMurrough beaten just under ten lengths into fourth behind Time
For Rupert. If they were tough tasks, then McMurrough's last outing was
an impossible one. Running in the Top Novices' Hurdle at Aintree, McMurrough
came seventh to El Dancer, beaten over 30 lengths. With more realistic
placing, McMurrough shouldn't remain a maiden over jumps come the end of
the 2009/10 season. He is a tall, leggy sort who looked unfurnished when
I saw him in the paddock at Cheltenham (also on his toes that day), and
should be a physically stronger animal when we see him next, meaning that
chasing could come into the equation sooner rather than later.
Miss
Overdrive
5 b m Overbury (IRE) - Free Travel (Royalty)
Trainer Alan King
Here's where the Roy Waterhouse Steeplechasing Ten To Follow list
plays safe, well at least as safe as is possible when choosing horses to
keep a watch on; pick a novice hurdling-mare from the King stable. Miss
Overdrive is the chosen one in 2009/10, and she made a successful bumper
debut in a NH Flat race at Southwell in March, starting favourite and beating
a fancied one of Oliver Sherwood's, Moscow Jewel, by a length and three
parts. On her only other start Miss Overdrive started 33/1 in the Listed
Mares' Bumper at the Aintree Grand National meeting and she did best of
the stable's three representatives, finishing fifth
to Candy Creek in a competitive, 20-runner renewal. Miss Overdrive is a
half-sister to her stable companion Over Sixty, who ran fourth in the David
Nicholson
Mares'
Hurdle
at the
2009
Cheltenham
Festival, and should win a couple of mares' novice hurdles in
2009/10 at up to 2m4f.
Pettifour
(IRE)
7 b g Supreme Leader - Queen Of Natives (IRE)
(Be My Native (USA))
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
Pettifour went into many notebooks as a novice chaser for the 2008/09
season after narrowly winning the 2008 Sefton Novices' Hurdle at Aintree,
but connections decided on a campaign in top staying hurdles, which proved
a partial success. The season started well enough with a win in the John
Smith's Hurdle at Wetherby, Pettifour overcoming some iffy jumping - often
landing hind legs first - to outbattle Mobaasher by a neck. He lost his
unbeaten record over timber when only third to Duc De Regniere in the Long
Distance Hurdle at Newbury, and failed to cut the mustard in good company
on his next four outings, following Big Buck's home at a respectful distance
in the Cleeve at Cheltenham, the World Hurdle at the Festival and the Liverpool
Hurdle at Aintree on three of them. His last outing saw a return to form,
Pettifour finishing runner-up in the World Series Hurdle at the Punchestown
Festival, beaten seven lengths by Aintree Hurdle runner-up Fiveforthree.
The well-made Pettifour's chasing career surely won't be delayed any longer,
and he could well take high rank among the
staying
novice
chasers
in the 2009/10 campaign.
Shillingstone
7 ch g Emperor Fountain - Columcille (St Columbus)
Trainer Miss L. Alner
Hunter chaser Shillingstone is capable of winning more races in
that sphere, but he's the right side of eight as he starts the 2009/10
season and looks worth running in handicap chases. The ex-pointer
was
having
his first
start
under
rules, as well as making a comeback after more than a year's absence, when
he ran in a 2m5f maiden hunter at Folkestone on February 25th and gave
the odds-on Dante's Storm a fright, running him to a length and a half.
Next
time,
at Exeter on March 17th, he was stepped up to 3m and looked like beating
Mr Ed with three to jump, but that confirmed stayer wore him down late
in the day. Shillingstone finally clicked at Exeter on April 14th. Jumping
soundly and racing in touch on the final circuit, he went on early in the
straight and idled once in the clear on his way to beating Drybrook Bedouin
by 15 lengths with a bit in hand. More success awaits Shillingstone, whatever
he's campaigned in (novice hurdling could also be a possibility).
Trafford
Lad
7 b g Tragic Role (USA) - Another Shuil (IRE) (Duky)
Trainer Dusty Sheehy
Look this way if it's consistency you're after in a National Hunt
racehorse. In his 12 starts under rules, Trafford Lad has completed each
time, won six (his only bumper, two novice hurdles and, last season, three
chases),
has
finished
out of the first three only once (when coming fourth) and not been
beaten further than eight and a half lengths. All his novice chase starts
were in Graded races and his three wins came on his first three
starts,
but
on the
first occasion the Punchestown stewards helped out. Debuting over fences
in a Grade 3 event in October, he was interfered with by first past the
post Rare Bob on the run-in and the positions were reversed. No help necessary
in another Grade 3, also at Punchestown, the following month when he beat
Window Of Hope by four lengths. His best effort came in the Grade 1 Drinmore
Novice over 2m4f at Fairyhouse on November 30th with a defeat of the Arkle
winner Forpadydeplasterer, tracking the pace, jumping soundly in the main,
pushed along on the home turn, going on three out and staying on well under
pressure from between the last two fences to win by five and a half lengths.
He didn't win again but ran well to be placed when second to Casey Jones
over 3m at Leopardstown over Christmas, third to Cooldine in the Dr P.J.
Moriarty at Leopardstown in February and, having given Cheltenham a miss,
fourth to Aran Concerto and Barker in the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse
over Easter. If you want to be critical Trafford Lad jumps slightly flat-backed
at some fences, but he's good in the main, and such is his consistency
that it'll be a shock if he doesn't win at least once
in 2009/10, even though he's sure to be campaigned at the highest level.
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© Roy
Waterhouse
2009
'The Meal Deal'