Let's imagine that The Sportsman is being re-launched and it takes me on as its chief National Hunt racing-pundit: "Welcome to the paper Roy. Can you please make your first article a preview piece for the 2011/12 jumps season?"

"For sure," I say, "and I thought I might start with a piece on the top two-mile hurdlers."

"Super..." The Editor seems pleased with my idea.

I open the piece with a sweeping statement: "Hurricane Fly is the most likely winner of the 2012 Champion Hurdle." A fine piece of horse racing-journalism for The Sportsman's comeback. The morning the paper comes out, Ed calls me into his office.

"You call that original fresh writing Roy? You've stated the bleedin' obvious! In the immortal words of Lord Sugar, you're fired."

Many a racing journalist, or TV pundit in these days of wall-to-wall racing on television, makes or has made a good living out of stating the bleedin' obvious, but, unfortunately perhaps, the Fly seems likely to make it back-to-back Champion Hurdles at Cheltenham in 2012, and was priced accordingly at around 7/4 over the Summer, 2/1 if you're lucky.

Unfortunate, that is, because it won't be a competitive race with several different outcomes, but on the flip side fortunate, because we're dealing with a hurdler that has the potential to be the best since Istabraq. I rate him 166, so his form is already there; now it's all about longevity, and staying sound and healthy. And, in the next Champion, he won't have the stigma attached by so many - myself included - of his never having seen Cheltenham before.

Nicky Henderson may be able to get another season out of Binocular, the 2010 Champion. The last campaign wasn't a total write-off, with a Christmas Hurdle win, but the issue over the allergy treatment that meant he missed Cheltenham, his failure to stay 2m4f in the Aintree Hurdle and unsuitable tactics in an absolute mess of a race in the Rabobank Champion at the Punchestown Festival which Hurricane Fly won, mean that you can forget about the second half of his season when assessing him on his return.

Binocular's stable companion, the Aintree Hurdle winner Oscar Whisky, is exposed at 2m, so a Champion win is unlikely for him - Hurricane Fly or not - and he's shorter in ante-post World Hurdle lists. He had a below-form Peddlers Cross behind him at Aintree, but if Donald McCain can get the Champion Hurdle second back to his best, he'll be up for a place at Cheltenham again.

Among last season's older novice timber-toppers, Spirit Son - another of the Henderson yard's embarrassment of riches - is the most likely to make an impact. In the Supreme Novices', you could argue that he was unlucky to get beat by the staying-on Al Ferof, who'd be more likely to go chasing. Spirit Son then went to Aintree for the Mildmay Novices' Hurdle over 2m4f and was impressive in a steadily-run race, posting form within 10 lbs of what will be needed to win an average Champion, for which he was challenging for second favouritism over the Summer. The Top Novices' Hurdle winner from Aintree Topolski has over 20 lbs to find starting 2011/12 and I'd be more interested in Punchestown winner Shot From The Hip, whose defeat of Hidden Universe - off his game at Cheltenham but back to his best at Punchestown - is solid enough.

All are wondering what distance Bobs Worth - Henderson again - will run over in 2011/12 and he has to appear in both this and the Staying Hurdlers-page. He'd proved himself over 2m, and 2m4f, but few would have seen his appearance in the Albert Bartlett over 3m at the Festival coming. After his victory in that, he's prominent in World Hurdle ante-post lists. I do have a problem with his current level of form, though. This one, unbeaten over hurdles and tasting defeat only in his debut bumper (coincidentally at his longest starting price to date, 5/1), is only 139 with me at the end of last season, but with his consistency, he'll likely better that.

I don't fancy any of the leading juveniles of 2010/11 to make an impact at the top level as we go through this campaign. Grandouet found little at Cheltenham and for me looked better than he actually is when beating Kumbeshwar at Punchestown, and Zarkandar, who won the Triumph and the Anniversary Hurdles to lay claim to being the number one juvenile in Britain and Ireland, looks too much of a staying type for the Champion.

So there we are - it looks as though Hurricane Fly will mop up whatever races he takes part in on his way to the 2012 Champion Hurdle, but it will be interesting to see where Spirit Son ends up next March.

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